Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
